Recent data reveals a significant drop in European travel to the U.S., with almost 200,000 fewer Europeans flying to the country in March 2025 compared to the same time last year. This decline is attributed to the tough immigration policies and trade tensions under the Trump administration.
According to the U.S. International Trade Administration (ITA), 846,577 Europeans arrived in the U.S. by air last month, marking a 17.4% drop, or around 178,000 fewer travelers, compared to March 2024.
Impact of U.S. Immigration Policies
The three largest European markets for U.S. travel—France, Germany, and the UK—saw significant decreases in travel. Germany recorded the biggest drop, with a 29% decline in arrivals. The UK and France saw decreases of 15% and 5%, respectively.
Travel from Asia also saw a slight drop of 3.4% in March, but the overall foreign arrivals in the U.S. decreased by 11.6% compared to the previous year. However, these figures do not include travelers from Canada or land crossings from Mexico.
Reasons Behind the Decline
While some of the drop in travel can be attributed to Easter falling later this year, the primary reason appears to be concerns over U.S. immigration and trade policies. European travelers have been discouraged by aggressive U.S. policies, including reports of citizens from France and Germany being detained or denied entry at U.S. airports.
Aviation journalist Edward Russell pointed out that the declining travel trend is a direct result of the Trump administration’s trade policies and immigration stance. “Reports of French and German nationals being held at the border have clearly eroded travel sentiment,” Russell noted.
He also highlighted the decline in Canadian travelers, following Trump’s suggestion to annex Canada as the “51st state.” This comment reportedly led to a 70% drop in Canadian bookings to the U.S.
Economic Impact on the Travel Industry
Airlines on both sides of the Atlantic are increasingly concerned about the declining demand for travel to the U.S. Major U.S. airlines, including American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and Southwest Airlines, have lowered their 2025 earnings forecasts due to weaker-than-expected demand. European airlines are also closely monitoring the situation.
Ben Smith, CEO of Air France-KLM, acknowledged the concerns at a recent industry event, stating that the airline was “studying and watching” the situation closely. Virgin Atlantic’s CFO, Oli Byers, also mentioned that there have been signs of slowing demand for U.S. travel in recent weeks.
Sir Tim Clark, president of Emirates, warned of broader economic troubles affecting the airline industry and the global economy. “We are in troubled times,” Clark said, noting difficulties facing the U.S. domestic market. However, he expressed confidence that Emirates and other international carriers are well-positioned to weather the economic challenges.
Outlook for the Future
Experts caution that while the travel industry is generally resilient, it remains vulnerable to macroeconomic shifts. Seth Borko, head of research at Skift, emphasized that while travel has become more resilient to economic downturns, it is still not immune to recessions.
Carlos Cendra from Mabrian, a global travel intelligence firm, echoed these concerns. He noted that sudden policy changes or challenges in visiting the U.S. could create a negative perception of the country as a travel destination, which could impact future travel decisions.
Despite the recent downturn in European travel to the U.S., airlines are still planning to expand their transatlantic networks this summer. According to Cirium, the number of seats available between the U.S. and Western Europe from April to September will increase by 4.2% compared to 2024.
Russell noted that airlines are reluctant to cut their summer schedules, fearing that the current decline in European travel may be temporary. Additionally, increased travel from the U.S. to Europe may help balance the drop in inbound European travel to the U.S.
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