The UK aviation industry is set to miss its 2030 sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) target, according to the government’s Climate Change Committee.
The committee forecasts that SAF will make up just 6% of aviation fuel by 2030, far short of the 10% target set under the SAF Mandate introduced in January. It predicts that SAF’s share will rise to 17% by 2040 and 38% by 2050, but this is still below the government’s planned SAF trajectory due to anticipated supply limitations.
The committee’s latest report, the 7th Carbon Budget, highlights that aviation was responsible for 8% of the UK’s CO2 emissions in 2023. This figure came despite emissions being reduced by 10% compared to 2019, positioning aviation as “the sixth highest-emitting sector” in the UK economy. The report warns that air travel will contribute 9% of the country’s CO2 emissions in 2024 and could reach 11% by 2030. By 2040, aviation is expected to be the highest-emitting sector, even if emissions are reduced by 17% in line with a projected ‘Balanced Pathway.’
In addition to carbon emissions, the committee noted that the non-CO2 warming effects of aviation have tripled since 1990. It stressed that these effects are likely to have a significant warming impact and need to be addressed.
The report also reveals that aviation emissions have risen by 69% since 1990, despite improvements in fuel efficiency. The main driver of this increase is a surge in international leisure flights. The committee pointed out that in 2010, 78% of air passengers were traveling for leisure, while 22% were on business trips. By 2023, those numbers had shifted to 86% and 14%, respectively.
Despite these challenges, the committee believes that the aviation sector can still achieve Net Zero emissions by 2050. This could be accomplished through a combination of SAF deployment, better fuel efficiencies, plane electrification, controlled growth in aviation demand, and engineered CO2 removal.
However, the committee argued that the costs of decarbonizing aviation, along with addressing the non-CO2 impacts, should be reflected in ticket prices. This, it says, would help to manage the growing demand for air travel. It also suggested that the government might need to implement additional demand management measures.
To manage aviation growth, the committee proposed several potential policy measures, including higher ticket prices driven by SAF and carbon removal costs, an increased air passenger duty to reflect the emissions impact of flying, and a frequent flyer levy, which would increase with the number of flights an individual takes. The committee also recommended limiting airport expansion but chose not to reinstate its previous call for a moratorium on further expansion.
These findings point to the pressing need for comprehensive strategies and policies to decarbonize the aviation sector and manage its environmental impact.
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