China’s recent decision to allow residents of Shanghai and Fujian Province to visit Taiwan is unlikely to help Taiwan’s Tourism Administration achieve its goal of attracting 10 million international tourists this year, according to cross-strait experts.
On January 17, China announced the new cross-strait tourism policy, following Taiwanese President William Lai’s New Year address. Lai had suggested that tourism between Taiwan and China could resume through negotiations between Taiwan’s semi-official Taiwan Strait Tourism Association (TSTA) and China’s Association for Tourism Exchange Across the Taiwan Straits (ATETS).
The Mainland Affairs Council stated that TSTA would soon reach out to ATETS to discuss potential challenges in implementing the policy. These challenges include verifying the Chinese travel agencies organizing tours to Taiwan and Taiwanese agencies handling Chinese tourists.
Chou Yung-hui, Director-General of Taiwan’s Tourism Administration, told the Taipei Times that the goal of these discussions would be to “ensure the safety and quality of tours when Chinese tourists visit Taiwan,” particularly concerning problems related to low-cost shopping tours. He added that negotiations could begin after the Lunar New Year holiday.
Experts believe that Beijing’s decision to resume limited cross-strait tourism after a six-year suspension is largely a response to shifting relations with the United States and Taiwan. Chang Wu-ueh, a professor of diplomacy and international relations at Tamkang University, explained that the move aims to show Washington Beijing’s willingness to engage with Taiwan and adopt a softer stance on cross-strait issues, especially in light of President Donald Trump’s tough policies against China.
Chang pointed out that Beijing’s response to Lai’s New Year address was muted, as it did not contain anything provocative or suggest a major shift in Taiwan’s cross-strait policy.
At the Taipei-Shanghai Twin City Forum in December, Shanghai Deputy Mayor Hua Yuan promoted group tours for Taiwanese visitors, signaling that Beijing might have authorized such comments. Chang noted that former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou and Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed to boost cross-strait tourism during their meeting in April, which could explain Beijing’s decision to partially resume tourism now.
Chang added that while many Chinese tourists would prefer independent travel to Taiwan, Beijing would likely only allow group tours for now, as it can control both the number of tourists and their travel schedules. He also noted that early results from the new policy could determine whether residents from other Chinese cities or provinces would be allowed to visit Taiwan.
Beyond tourism, Beijing has also called for Taiwan to lift its group tour ban and lower its travel alert for China. Chang believes that if both sides can resolve these issues, it may pave the way for more Chinese tourists to visit Taiwan.
However, he cautioned that cross-strait tourism is unlikely to return to the levels seen before 2015, when Taiwan received around 4 million Chinese tourists annually. Changes in Taiwan’s political relations with the US, including higher-ranking US national security officials visiting Taiwan, could lead Beijing to escalate its pressure, potentially shifting its policy on tourism.
As of November 2023, roughly 377,499 Chinese tourists visited Taiwan through third countries, while 2.54 million Taiwanese visited China. Huang Cheng-tsung, an associate professor at Providence University’s Department of Tourism, estimated that allowing residents from Shanghai and Fujian to visit Taiwan could add around 400,000 international tourists. However, he emphasized that Taiwan would still need a significant increase in international visitors to meet its tourism target for the year.
Huang pointed out that unlike during Ma Ying-jeou’s administration, when Chinese tourists were a key driver of Taiwan’s tourism, Chinese nationals are now more inclined to travel domestically. Economic factors, including weaker growth, have also reduced Chinese tourists’ spending power, further complicating Taiwan’s efforts to meet its goals.
Given the uncertainty around Beijing’s implementation of the new policy, Huang stated that Taiwan is unlikely to immediately lift the group tour ban or downgrade its travel alert. He explained that Chinese travel agents would need to visit Taiwan to arrange tours, and the Taiwanese government would have to monitor the situation before making any changes.
Ringo Lee, Chairman of the High Quality of Travel Association, welcomed the resumption of tourism talks, noting that such negotiations could help create a safer and more regulated cross-strait tourism market. However, he cautioned that tourism operators must be prepared to manage the risks associated with potential political disruptions.
In August 2019, Beijing suspended individual travel from 47 Chinese cities to Taiwan and banned overseas group tourism in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In response, Taiwan had initially announced plans to allow group tours to China beginning in March 2023, but this policy was suspended in June 2023 due to a lack of reciprocal action from Beijing and changes to flight routes.
Beijing began to ease restrictions on travel in August 2023, allowing group and independent tourism to Taiwan’s Lienchiang and Kinmen counties. However, full cross-strait tourism is still far from returning to pre-2015 levels.
The “1992 Consensus” refers to an agreement between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Chinese Communist Party, where both sides agree there is “one China,” but each side holds its own interpretation of what that means.
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