Chinese travel agents are optimistic about the rebound of outbound tourism, predicting a full recovery by 2025, according to a new survey by Dragon Trail. The findings, set to be released on Wednesday, highlight growing confidence in the sector as agents adapt to changing market dynamics and traveler preferences.
The recovery, however, will vary by region. Asia is expected to bounce back the fastest, thanks to its proximity to China and visa-free travel arrangements. In contrast, North America’s recovery is likely to lag, with agents forecasting a rebound only by 2026 due to slow progress in restoring flight capacity.
Economic improvements in China are seen as a key driver of the recovery. Over 70% of agents believe the country’s strengthening economy will boost outbound travel by 2025. Despite this optimism, price sensitivity remains a significant factor. While Chinese travelers reclaimed their position as top global spenders in 2023, they are still cautious about their budgets.
High travel costs are a major concern, with nearly half of the agents identifying it as a barrier. However, international tensions and safety concerns are seen as even greater challenges to the recovery of outbound tourism.
The survey also identified East China and South China as the most important source markets for outbound travel. Cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are expected to lead the way, with travelers from these regions most likely to increase their travel spending over the next three years.
As the industry adapts to new sales channels and evolving traveler expectations, the road to recovery appears promising, albeit uneven. Agents remain hopeful that by 2025, China’s outbound tourism will return to its pre-pandemic strength.
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