The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has published its October 2024 passenger demand report, showing continued solid growth in global air travel.
Overall, global demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), rose by 7.1% compared to the same month last year. This growth outpaced the 6.1% increase in total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), and led to a slight improvement in the industry’s load factor, which reached 83.9% – up 0.8 percentage points from October 2023.
International Travel Shows Robust Growth
International passenger demand saw a notable 9.5% increase year-on-year, with capacity rising 8.6%. This boosted the international load factor to 83.5%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous year.
In contrast, domestic travel growth was more modest, with domestic demand increasing by 3.5% compared to October 2023. Domestic capacity grew by just 2.0%, and the load factor improved to 84.5%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year.
IATA’s Willie Walsh Highlights Efficient Travel Gains
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, emphasized the significance of both strong passenger demand and the continued improvements in load factors. He noted that the average seat factor has increased substantially over the past few decades, rising from around 67% in the 1990s to more than 83% today. Walsh also pointed out that efforts to impose passenger taxes aimed at reducing emissions may not have the intended effects. He argued that even if fewer passengers fly due to higher costs, airlines will continue flying their planes, potentially with fewer passengers, which would not reduce emissions and could undo years of progress in maximizing aircraft efficiency.
Regional Performance: Diverse Growth Across the Globe
Regionally, demand growth varied, with Asia-Pacific showing the strongest performance. Airlines in the region experienced a 12.7% year-on-year increase in demand, alongside a 9.7% rise in capacity, resulting in a slight increase in load factor to 84.1%. In Europe, carriers saw an 8.7% rise in demand, with capacity increasing by 7.3% and a load factor of 85.7%.
In contrast, North American carriers posted a modest 3.2% increase in demand, with a slight capacity rise of 2.9% and a load factor of 84.2%. Latin America also experienced a healthy 10.9% growth in demand, although its load factor fell slightly by 0.6 percentage points to 85.3%.
African airlines recorded a strong 10.4% year-on-year rise in demand, driven by a 5.3% increase in capacity. However, despite this growth, their load factor was lower than other regions at 73.2%, though it was up by 3.4 percentage points compared to the previous year. Middle Eastern carriers saw more modest growth, with a 2.2% increase in demand, a slight capacity increase, and a dip in load factor by 0.2 percentage points to 80.2%.
Domestic Markets Show Mixed Results
Within domestic markets, the standout performer was China, where demand surged by 9.7%, reflecting strong domestic travel as wide-body aircraft were increasingly deployed to meet the demand. Other key markets, such as Australia and Brazil, also posted healthy growth rates of 2.9% and 9.5%, respectively, though some regions like India and the US showed weaker results. The US, in particular, saw a slight decline of 1.2% in domestic demand, with a small drop in its load factor.
Outlook for the Industry
Despite fluctuations across different regions and markets, the overall picture remains one of resilience and recovery for the global aviation industry. As the year progresses, IATA anticipates sustained demand for air travel, underpinned by economic growth, strong consumer confidence, and increasing operational efficiencies in the airline industry.
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