Airfares are expected to remain below 2023 levels for the remainder of the year, with prices starting to rise as the fall and winter holiday seasons approach. This forecast comes from Hopper, a leading booking site, which sees potential savings for flexible travelers during the upcoming months.
September Sees Lowest Airfare Prices of the Year
According to Hopper’s latest report, domestic airfare is projected to average around $240 for a round-trip flight in September. This marks an 8% decrease compared to the same time last year. Even after a record-setting summer, airfare is expected to stay low, providing relief to travelers—at least until October.
October Brings Price Increases as Holiday Travel Looms
Despite current low prices, Hopper forecasts that airfare will start to climb in October as demand rises for the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. As travelers prepare for family gatherings and year-end vacations, ticket prices will likely respond to the increased demand.
December Airfare Peaks but Still Remains Below Last Year’s Levels
By the second week of December, airfare is expected to reach a peak with round-trip flights averaging $283. Although this is an increase from earlier months, it still represents a 9% drop compared to December 2023, offering a slight advantage for holiday travelers.
Fall Travel Offers Discounts for Flexible Travelers
“After a summer marked by record-breaking passenger numbers, we’re entering the fall ‘shoulder season,’ which bridges the gap between the peak summer travel and the busy holiday season,” said Hayley Berg, Hopper’s lead economist, in an interview with Travel + Leisure. Lower travel demand during this season traditionally leads to reduced airfare, creating opportunities for those with flexible travel plans to take advantage of discounted flights.
January to Bring Further Decreases in Airfare
Once the holiday season concludes, airfares are expected to drop again in January. Hopper predicts the average round-trip ticket cost will decrease to $251, offering travelers more affordable options as the new year begins.
Increased Airline Capacity Puts Downward Pressure on Prices
Hopper attributes the overall lower airfare prices to increased airline capacity. In July alone, U.S. airlines operated about 94.5 million seats, marking a 6% increase compared to last year. Major carriers, including United Airlines, Alaska Airlines, and Delta Air Lines, have announced expansion plans, further contributing to the decline in prices.
International Travel Fares Reflect Similar Trends
The trend of falling airfares isn’t limited to domestic travel. Hopper also notes that international travel, particularly to Canada, Europe, and South America, has seen fares drop below 2019 levels. This could offer an attractive opportunity for travelers looking to explore destinations abroad this fall.
Exception: Asia Fares Remain Higher Than Pre-Pandemic Levels
One significant exception to the downward trend is travel to Asia, where airfare remains 36% higher than 2019 levels. The reasons behind this may vary, including lower flight availability and increased demand for travel to Asian destinations, which continues to push prices upward.
Conclusion
With airfare prices set to rise as the holidays approach, travelers have a window of opportunity to enjoy discounted fares during the fall shoulder season. Whether traveling domestically or internationally, flexible travelers can take advantage of these savings before the year-end price surge. As January ushers in the new year, further reductions in airfare could once again make travel more affordable for those looking to kick off 2025 with a trip.